Saturday, April 10, 2010

PostHeaderIcon Trade Up Scenarios

The Bengals have 9 picks in this years draft, including 6 of them in the first 4 rounds. It's impossible that 9 rookies will make this team, so using a pick or two to trade up could be an option. Although I'd rather trade down to acquire more 2nd and 3rd round picks with this draft being as loaded as it is, there's a few scenarios if someone the Bengals like takes a slide they could move up to get them.

The first scenario for me would be Earl Thomas. There's still an outside chance he makes it to the 21st pick, but with his 4.37 forty at his pro day added to a couple seasons of outstanding play makes it very unlikely. I think the first real chance of Thomas coming off the board is at 10 to Jacksonville, but I don't like the idea of trading into the top 10 to take anyone and having to pay a rookie that top 10 money. The next possibility is Miami at the 12th spot, they need Safety help, but they also need quite a few other things as well. Then SF is 13th, but I'd expect them to take one of the O lineman with their first of 2 picks. After that I don't see a threat for him to come off the board until 17th pick with SF picking for a 2nd time. So that would give a possibility to trade the Titans at 16 or the Giants at 15. To get up to that spot it'd probably take either a 3rd round pick or a 4th & 5th packaged with the 21st overall pick. Not too bad of a cost, especially since we have two 3rd and two 4th round picks. Also since 9 players will not make this team they could package some later round picks to move back into the 3rd or 4th.

The next scenario would be to go up and grab Derrick Morgan. This guy is the complete package at DE, he's an every down player and would give a boost to the pass rush immediately. To get him would cost a little more, right now I have him at 5th on the Big Board and he's an expected top 10 pick. There's a chance he slides though just based on the team needs in the top 10. In the top 5 it's most likely gonna go as expected: Bradford, Suh, McCoy, Okung, and either Bulaga or Trent Williams. I think Seattle needs to go O lineman at 6. Cleveland will take Berry who most likely will be available. The Raiders will probably take one of if not the last remaining top 5 tackle. The Bills will take either Clausen or one of the tackles if still available.

Then comes Jacksonville, they could be the wildcard for the Bengals whether they trade up or not. The Jags could pick a few different players the Bengals will be targeting and their pick could change how those players end up coming off the board. If they end up going Spiller or another position there's a good chance either Bryant, Thomas, or Brandon Graham could be there at 21. Anyway Jacksonville is an important pick for the Bengals, but if Derrick Morgan is still on the board he could be their pick. They just acquired Aaron Kampman though so there's a chance they don't take him.

Now the next 3 teams run 3-4's and I honestly think Morgan's a way better fit in a 4-3 coming from a 3 point stance vs. a LB coming off the edge, so I don't see either Denver, SF, or Miami taking him. Next is Seattle, they would almost have to take him based on the value plus that's a need for the Seahawks. So you'd have to trade up ahead of them to one of those teams, preferrably SF or Miami. That'd cost either the Bengals 2nd rounder or a 3rd,4th, and 5th packaged with the 21st pick. Since they have comp picks in the 3rd and 4th if anyone of those teams would take that second option I'd pull the trigger. With so many 2nd rounders having 1st round talent in this draft I don't know if I'd want to part with that 2nd round pick. But Derrick Morgan is the complete package and our D could go from good to great especially if Odom is back to form and they have him and Morgan coming off the edge. With our elite corners and the pass rush those two would provide you'd have to think plenty of interceptions would be coming this season. Especially if they get one of the ballhawking Safeties in the 2nd or 3rd round.

There's one more option and this would be an ideal option in my opinion. The player is Brandon Graham and if you watch his game tape he's a beast and I have him rated just below Morgan based on Morgan has the better height. Graham owned Bryan Bulaga in the Iowa game this year and alot of talking heads have him as a top 5 pick. Anyway I'd say 70% of the mock drafts out there have him going 19th to Atlanta. This could be why Jacksonville will be a big wildcard as well. If they don't take Morgan it could push the DE's one down the ladder and cause Graham to fall to the 21st spot. But in order to get in front of Atlanta the Bengals would only have to trade up 3 spots. The bad news is the 18th pick belongs to Pittsburgh so they may not be willing to trade to a division opponent. They could probably get this done for a 4th packaged with their 1st so the cost wouldn't be much at all. Graham could add about the same pass rush element Morgan could. Even though he's short for the position he's plenty strong enough to play DE in a 4-3 and play against the run as well. He may not get as many batted balls but I bet he makes up for it in sacks and hurries.

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